(UPDATED 4/1) Coronavirus Reality v Perception and World Markets

The Coronavirus is a mixed bag of truth, lies, deception, confusion, reaction and overreaction.   It has become clear, that the greatest threat and thing to prepare for is not the virus, but the reaction to the virus.  The virus will pass, but governments and the populous reaction to it have changed everything, and an entirely new course has been set politically and economically and financially.

While reasonable precautions should be taken to prevent and manage the spread of COVID-19, we should not be fearful, panic or overreact. Fear is what causes social & news media, governments, markets and individuals tend to overreact to whatever is going on around them.

The virus does present a threat, but it pales in comparison to a plethora of other mortal threats in this world, and society is overreacting. Many suspect the virus will also slow with the warmer weather, like the flu season which usually finishes off in mid-April. Although most citizens seem to only exhibit minor symptoms if affected by the virus at all, it is still good to take precautions without over-reacting. While the COVID-19 numbers are likely skewed due to the number of unreported cases, below are some statistics on the common flu and how it compares to the Coronavirus to provide some perspective.

Flu Statistics:

  • 5% – 20% of the U.S. population that will get the flu, on average, each year.
  • 200,000 Americans hospitalized each year because of problems with the flu.
  • 34,200 flu-related deaths in 2018-2019 Season
  • Globally the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 annually –The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates

Worldometer on Coronavirus: (As of 4.1.20) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  • Total Cases: 927,986
  • Deaths: 46,491
  • Recovered/Discharged: 193,474
  • Active Cases Globally: 688,021
  • Total Cases in US:        211,143
  • US Deaths: 4,713

It is important to consider the facts, as well as how people will react to situations regardless of the facts when planning for practical preparedness in these situations. While the numbers are likely off due to many unreported cases in which citizens never went to the doctor or hospital because their symptoms did not become severe, and while age, prior respiratory issues and/or already weakened immune systems have been a factor in the majority of deaths, it remains a threat and markets, individuals, and governments will continue to react.

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say (3.24.20) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns (3.25 20) The Federalist https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/inaccurate-virus-models-are-panicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/

The Dow reached its all-time highest point 29,551 on Feb. 12, 2020. It closed Monday, March 23 at 18,559, down over 11,000, then rose to 21,336 to finish the week.  This was the largest drop since the 2008 financial crisis and the largest rise in history. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates a half percent, and then lowered them again March 15 to almost 0; lower than the 2008 Financial Crisis. Even more worrisome, they are making the largest infusion of cash into the overnight repo market in history.  They also are going to be buying $500 billion Treasury Securities and $200 billion Mortgage Back Securities. This dramatic action clearly shows that the financial fallout is much greater than people think, as these actions are unprecedented.

Even when markets and central banks have a firm foundation, they will fluctuate with world events, but not to this degree. However, when stock market growth cycles peak and/or go into freefall and economies begin to falter, central banks lower interest rates and infuse cash into the banking system to attempt to re-stimulate the economy to sustain growth if possible. Regardless of the actual or perceived threat posed by the Coronavirus, investors are reacting and market analysts have no grid system for what’s happening and no clue what will happen next. In the last week of March, the longest Bull market in American history ended with the Dow dropping more than 20% and the shortest Bear market in history, lasting only three days, having risen 20%. Currently, the Dow is still down 8,000 points from its high, but needless say it’s a roller coaster.

The Federal Reserve and many of the other central banks of the world have lowered interest rates and printed massive amounts of money, so there is not much more they can do from this point forward.  The banking system is in trouble, to the degree that the FDIC put out a video asking people not to take their money out of their banks. The lowest, longest-running rates of unemployment have also come to a halt, with unemployment rates skyrocketing. What will happen next is unclear, as all the restrictions aren’t over yet and the degree of economic fallout is still to be determined.

Dow Escapes Bear Market With a 6% Rally (3.26.20) WSJ


Record Rise in Unemployment Claims Halts History Run of Job Growth (3.26.20) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-run-of-american-job-growth-has-ended-11585215000?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Dow Plunges 10% With Stimulus Details Uncertain (3.18.20) Bloomberg


FDIC Asks Americans to Keep Their Money in the Banks (3.25.20)


Fed Cuts Rates to Near Zero and Will Relaunch Bond-Buying Program (3.15.20) WSJ


Stocks Plunge 10% in Dow’s Worst Day Since 1987 (3.12.20) WSJ


Fed Unveils Dramatic Measures to Ease Market Strain on Virus (3.12.20) Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/n-y-fed-to-conduct-purchases-across-range-of-maturities-k7ozy3u5?srnd=premium

Federal Reserve Issues $500 Billion to Overnight Lending Program (3.14.20)


U.S. Will Suspend All Travel From Europe for Next 30 Days (3.11.20) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-outbreak-prompts-trump-to-question-europe-travel-restrictions-11583971156

Stock Markets Down More Than 7% After Trading Halt Lifts (3.9.20) WSJ


As with any emergency, take common-sense steps to be as prepared as possible for any situation and the public’s reaction to it. Utilize good judgment in purchasing extra food and provisions, and keep some extra cash at home (don’t hoard the toilet paper!). The following articles contain a variety of viewpoints and suggestions in regard to the Coronavirus. I am not necessarily in agreement with everything in these articles and interviews, but if you are looking for more information on this subject you may find these helpful.

Farr’s Law and COVID-19 https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-going-to-hit-its-peak-and-start-falling-sooner-than-you-think/

March 2nd Coronavirus Update We’re all Gonna Get it, But We’ll be Fine (3.2.20)


What Are Your Odds of Getting the Flu https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics

CDC US Coronavirus Outbreak is a Matter of When Not If (2.26.20) The Blaze


CDC outlines what closing schools, businesses would look like in a pandemic  (2.25.20) CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/cdc-outlines-what-closing-schools-businesses-would-look-like-in-us-pandemic.html

This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year, According to the CDC (2.11.20)


WHO Declares Coronavirus Outbreak a Global Public-Health Emergency (1.30.20) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-triggers-damage-control-from-governments-companies-11580396657

3rd Quarter Economic Update


The 3rd quarter ended with great volatility which continued into the first two weeks of the 4th quarter. US stocks fell sharply in the first week of October due to concerns of slowing US manufacturing; all three major indexes have been negative for the past 12 months.  The second week brought news of potential succession of the trade war between the US and China, after which the stock market recovered.  Many large players have withdrawn their participation in Facebook’s new Libra crypto currency.  Political unrest continued around the world, especially in Hong Kong.  Brexit didn’t break in the third quarter, but Boris Johnson struck a deal with the EU on Oct 16th and brought it to Parliament for approval, but the deadline is less than two weeks away.  While everyone was watching the trade wars, global markets and political events, there was much under-reported central bank action, and a brand new international wire system also came online.

U.S., China Move Forward on Trade (10.11.19) WSJ


Facebook’s Backers of Libra Reconsider Their Involvement (10.1.19) WSJ


Glenn Beck Issues Fiscal Warning Just Like he Did Before the 2008 Financial Crisis Something is Very Wrong (9.19.19) The Blaze https://www.theblaze.com/glenn-radio/federal-reserve-repo-market?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily-Newsletter__PM-Final%202019-09-19&utm_term=TheBlaze%20Daily%20PM%20-%20last%20270%20days



In early September, The Federal Reserve voted to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point for the second time in two months, due to rising concerns of a global slowdown.  The WSJ reported:

For first time since 2008 the central bank injects funds into money markets after a sudden shortage of cash.  For the first time in more than a decade, the Federal Reserve injected cash into money markets Tuesday to pull down interest rates and said it would do so again Wednesday after technical factors led to a sudden shortfall of cash. The federal-funds rate, a benchmark that influences borrowing costs throughout the financial system, rose to 2.25% on Monday, from 2.14% Friday. The Fed seeks to keep the rate in a target range between 2% and 2.25%. Bids in the fed-funds market reached as high as 5% early Tuesday, according to traders, well above the band.  The New York Fed moved Tuesday morning to inject $53 billion into the banking system through transactions known as repurchase agreements, or repos. (The repo market is where one bank will borrow from another bank on a short term basis usually overnight, because it doesn’t have enough cash at a higher interest rate.)  The bank said Tuesday afternoon it would inject up to $75 billion more on Wednesday morning, but many in the market were looking beyond that decision.

The infusing of cash into the overnight banking system, which the Fed said they would continue to do until Oct 9th, is a clear indication of current and future troubles, however, this action has infused the banking system with sufficient cash, at least for the short term.  The Federal Reserve will extend its cash injections into overnight lending markets for at least another month, after pumping in more than $330 billion since mid-September, as banks face a wave of Treasury bond sales this week, amid a near-record budget deficit and ongoing concern over the strength of the U.S. economy.

In addition, “The Fed plans to buy $60 billion of Treasurys per month, and many are wondering if it is leading the charge back into quantitative easing, often known as money printing,” – WSJ.

The San Francisco Fed made the following concerning, and hopefully not prophetic, statement, “negative interest rates are a viable tool to provide stimulus to economies that need it, and the U.S. might have benefited from using it during the financial crisis.”.

The entire concept of negative interest rates is already hard to understand, the WSJ reported that, “The European Central Bank is about to start lending to some banks at less than it pays them for putting money on deposit.  The ECB said last week that it would both pay a higher rate of interest on deposits and charge a lower fee for lending, both under strict conditions. On the deposit side, the introduction of what the ECB calls “tiering” allows banks to avoid the penalty rate of minus 0.5% on deposits of excess reserves.”

Finding Meaning in Quantitative Easing (10.11.19) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/finding-meaning-in-quantitative-easing-11570872601

Fed Paper Says Negative Rate Policy Can Provide Real Stimulus (10.15.19) WSJ


Fed Extends Repos Until Nov 4 Dealers Brace for $193 Billion in Treasury Sales (10.7.19) https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fixed-income/fed-extends-repos-until-nov-4-dealers-brace-for-193-billion-in-treasury-sales-15116925

Fed Intervenes to Curb Soaring Short-Term Borrowing Costs (9.17.19) WSJ


Another Coming Recession Federal Reserve Funds Banks Billions, Market is Broken (9.21.19) TheBlaze


Fed Cuts Rates by Quarter Point But Faces Growing Split (9.18.19) WSJ


Big Banks Loom Over Fed Repo Efforts (9.26.19) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-banks-loom-over-fed-repo-efforts-11569490202

A  New Central Bank Approach Pay Banks to Lend (9.17.19) WSJ




The First Iranian English Economic Daily reported, “Governor of the Central Bank of Iran says Iran and Russia have connected their financial messaging services to handle two-way banking transactions.  Outlining details of his talks with the Russian delegation in Turkey, Abdolnasser Hemmati said banks in both countries are now connected through the Russian SPFS and Iran’s SEPAM. The initiative is to be used as an alternative to payments through SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) for protection against third country sanctions.

Today the USD represents 60% of world reserves and 80% of global payments.  The reason this very significant is that the US has been able to influence and control any nation using US Dollars, by imposing sanctions and cutting off their ability to transact and wire money in and out of their country using SWIFT codes.  Iran and Turkey now have another way to wire money, effectively circumventing US and EU sanctions.  Reuters reported:

“Russian lawmakers on Tuesday backed the international use of a Russian alternative system for the global financial messaging network SWIFT designed by Moscow to eliminate the risk of Western sanctions.  Russia has held talks with China, India, Iran and Turkey about joint use of Russia’s financial messaging system, said Anatoly Aksakov, who heads the Russian Banking Association and a financial committee with the lower house of parliament.  “As the system has proved to be viable and efficient, it draws interest from both Russian and foreign players, it is proposed to give any legal entities, Russian and foreign, the possibility to use it,

SWIFT, was founded in 1973 and connects more than 11,000 institutions in over 200 countries and territories, it said on its website.  Moscow has also seen interest in joining the Russia-based system from Arab countries and is ready to start negotiations about creating a switch that would connect the Russian system with the European one, Aksakov said. 

This will greatly reduce the ability of the US, the EU and other nations to curtail rogue nations utilizing non-military economic options.  It will also reduce US control over world events and increase the influence and control held by Russia and other nations.

Banks in Iran, Russia Connected via Non-SWIFT Financial Messaging Service (9.18.19) https://financialtribune.com/articles/business-and-markets/99912/banks-in-iran-russia-connected-via-non-swift-financial-messaging

Russia Backs Global Use of its Alternative SWIFT System (9.9.19) Reuters




The euro is down, the pound is up, and former partners are distancing themselves from Facebook’s new cryptocurrency Libra.  Gold & silver are up, but buyers of gold should beware as there are counterfeit gold bars being sold in world markets.

MasterCard, Visa, eBay, Stripe Drop Out of Facebook’s Libra Network (10.11.19) WSJ


Facebook Scrambles to Keep Libra on Track as Partners Waver (10.1.19)


Euro Drifts Toward Its Lowest Level Against Dollar in Years (10.3.19) WSJ


Fake-Branded Bars Slip Dirty Gold Into World Markets (8.28.19)




Fannie and Freddie are being released from government oversight and have already been loosening lending requirements to allow more people who don’t meet qualifications to get mortgages.  This sounds eerily very familiar, maybe they should rent The Big Short and watch it to refresh their memories.  According to the WSJ:

Mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae FNMA 3.26% and Freddie Mac FMCC 3.16%   will start keeping earnings as part of a Trump administration process aimed at moving the companies out of conservatorship and back into the private sector.  Fannie and Freddie are central players in the housing market, buying about half of all U.S. mortgages from lenders and packaging them for issuance as securities. The government effectively nationalized them during the 2008 crisis in a bid to stabilize the housing market as mortgage defaults mounted.”

The US economy is doing well, but there are signs pointing to lurking trouble, like General Electric freezing pension plans for 20,000 workers, the US staring its new fiscal year almost $23B in debt, the Federal Reserve printing and pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the overnight bank and repro markets, and rising individual debt levels coupled with loosening lending requirements.

General Electric Freezes Pension Plans for 20,000 US employees in an Effort to Reduce Debt (10.7.19) Yahoo News |  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CarVrn3JyaA

General Electric to Freeze Pensions for 20,000 Workers (RTD Quick Take) (10.7.19) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UorlsmGFuAk&feature=youtu.be

1,015,736,491,184 Reasons to Have a Plan B (10.1.19) SMC https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/1015736491184-reasons-to-have-a-plan-b-25656/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=sm_notes&utm_campaign=notes&utm_content=20191001_debt

The Fed, Banks Printing Money to Prevent Trouble Recession Will Come Soon (9.24.19) GB https://www.glennbeck.com/radio/the-fed-banks-printing-money-to-prevent-trouble-recession-will-come-soon

Fannie, Freddie to Retain Earnings (9.30.19) WSJ  https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-to-retain-earnings-11569851912



U.S. stocks rallied as banks and health-care companies reported stronger than forecasted 3rd quarter results, and a ceasefire was called on the US vs China trade war, at least temporarily.  Services, however, showed a sharp drop globally, and manufacturing also slowed.

The WSJ reported that, “The U.S. plans to swiftly impose tariffs on $7.5 billion in aircraft, food products and other goods from the European Union after the World Trade Organization authorized the levies Wednesday.  “For years, Europe has been providing massive subsidies to Airbus that have seriously injured the U.S. aerospace industry and our workers,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement. “Finally, after 15 years of litigation, the WTO has confirmed that the United States is entitled to impose countermeasures in response to the EU’s illegal subsidies.”

Germany’s economy has been drifting toward recession for most of 2019, and their factories continue to preform poorly due to trade wars and Brexit..

Stocks Climb After Strong Results From Banks, Health Sector (10.15.19) WSJ


EU Warns of 5G Risks Amid Scrutiny of Huawei (10.11.19) WSJ


Services Stumble Risks Sharper Global Slowdown (10.3.19) WSJ


U.S. to Impose Tariffs on EU Goods After WTO’s Airbus Ruling (10.2.19) WSJ


Stocks Drop on Worries About Growth (10.2.19) WSJ


Global Stocks Absorb Blow of Manufacturing Slowdown (10.1.19) WSJ


Germany on Brink of Recession as Factories Slump (9.23.19) WSJ




According to the WSJ, “Mr. Johnson made a significant concession earlier in October when he agreed that Northern Ireland could stay aligned to EU regulations, eliminating the need for regulatory checks on the island of Ireland, with checks being carried out when goods come from Britain into Northern Ireland.  In recent days, Britain has also proposed a special customs partnership that would allow Northern Ireland to effectively remain in the U.K. and EU customs union.

On Oct 16, the UK and EU struck an agreement. Prime Minister Johnson returned to the UK with the deal and parliament voted to approve it, however not the timetable of the deal for an Oct 31st exit.  Hence, although both sides would greatly benefit from this deal, its execution remains uncertain.

Johnson Brexit Deal Clears Hurdle but Timetable Rejected (10.22.19) WSJ


U.K. & EU Agree on Draft Brexit Deal, Paving Way for Key Vote (10.17.19) WSJ


Brexit Negotiators Edge Closer to a Draft Deal (10.15.19) WSJ




Political unrest continues globally with rioting in Ecuador, Peru, Spain, Iran, Iraq, Russia and Hong Kong.  South Korea launched a ballistic missile, this time from a submarine, as a prelude to new talks with the US.  Turkey who continues to move away from the west towards Russia, started bombing Kurdish forces in Syria as the US declared it was exiting Syria.  The US then imposed more economic sanctions against Turkey, causing them to pause their attack.

Ecuador Begins Cleanup After Nearly Two Weeks of Deadly Protests (10.14.19) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecuador-begins-cleanup-after-nearly-two-weeks-of-deadly-protests-11571089214

Spain’s Catalan Separatist Leaders Found Guilty of Sedition (10.14.19) WSJ


Iraq Acts to End Deadly Response to Protests (10.9.19) WSJ


Peruvian Crisis Divides Political Class (10.1.19) WSJ


One Hong Kong District Becomes a Combat Zone (10.1.19) WSJ


Turkey Agrees to Pause Military Operations in Syria (10.17.19) WSJ


Turkey Begins Offensive Against U.S. Ally in Syria (10.9.19) WSJ


U.S. Officials Are Worried About Turkish Foray Into Syria (10.13.19) WSJ


North Korea Says it Successfully Tested New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (10.2.19) Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-says-successfully-tested-new-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-idUSKBN1WH2GS



Polish and Hungarian election results were another win for nationalism in Europe.  Poland and Hungary have been at odds with the EU for the last two years.  In Austria, another nationalist, former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, won his election, continuing the rejection of EU establishment candidates across Europe.  German, French and other elections are coming up in the near future and the EU globalists parties are not faring well.

Poland’s Ruling Nationalists Look Narrowly Poised to Return to Power for Another 4 Years (10.11.19) WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/polands-ruling-nationalists-eye-new-term-as-voting-begins-11570953095

Austrian Conservative Sebastian Kurz Wins Election (9.29.19) WSJ


What Happened in 2008 & Will it Happen Again? (9.17.19)

video: https://youtu.be/hgK7HR91W9A

In this presentation we discuss:

  • What happened in 2007-2008?
  • What’s happening today that is setting the stage for a repeat?
  • How will “non-performing loans” effect China, the EU, Japan, the US and global markets?
  • Why would a banking crisis today, be far more difficult than in 2008?
  • How does this effect you and what can you do about it?

NEW – Live Weekly Update – Tune in Tuesdays

Every Tuesday night at 7:00 P.M. EST, I will be providing a weekly update on international economics, global markets and political events.  Times are changing and events are unfolding in unprecedented ways that have experts scratching their heads at how it will all play out.

My hope is that this show will provide insight, discernment and greater understanding into the political and economic landscape, so we can be men and women who understand the times and know what to do.  I ask that you please pray for this effort and invite you to listen to the broadcast.

Here is the link to the next broadcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhevvLYJoK4  


Sept. 3rd Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhevvLYJoK4&feature=em-lbrm


Political Upheaval & New Economics Create Uncertainty 

  • World markets are established far more on perception than they are on reality
  • New economics and unprecedented events are creating uncertainty
  • The War Between Globalism & Nationalism is dividing the EU and other nations
  • Elections are weakening the control of mainstream parties and global elites
  • Central banks have switched from raising rates in 2018 to lowering them in 2019
  • World Markets can’t be sure of anything, but they continue to rise along with their debt levels.

Are you prepared for what’s ahead? Get into position every Tuesday!
7:00 PM EST – 6:00 PM CST – 5:00 PM MST – 4:00 PM PST