Monthly Archives: August 2022

Q-2 Economic & Political Update

In less than two years the US has gone from a respected world superpower to a failing banana republic.  The supply chain, which has efficiently operated for 200 years, is purposely being dismantled, inflation is 9%, the price of gas has doubled, we’ve gone from an oil export nation to an oil-dependent nation, our military leadership has gone woke and, along with our president and vice-president, are no longer respected.  The US Stock market had the worst six-month performance since 1872, and after two consecutive quarters of a sinking economy (which is the definition of a Recession), US market analysts, economists, and even the media are voicing concerns.  The Biden Administration’s answer to the problem is to redefine the definition of recession and raise federal income taxes on its citizens. 

The WSJ wrote, “The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row—a common definition of recession—as businesses trimmed their inventories, the housing market buckled under rising interest rates, and high inflation took steam out of consumer spending.”  Simon Black wrote, “The Board of Trustees for Social Security released its annual report. And, once again, it was a scathing indictment of the program’s solvency.  Primarily, the report points out that, since 2008, the cost of Social Security has been “increasing much more rapidly than [its income] and is projected to continue to do so through about 2040.”  And at that rate, the trustees (who are the US Secretary of State, Secretary of Labor, and Secretary of Health and Human Services explain, “Trust Fund reserves become fully depleted in 2034”. 

The expectation for the second half of 2022 is bleak; the US stock market, housing market and economy will continue to falter and the USD will continue to devalue, while interest rates, inflation, unemployment and national debt will continue to rise.

Recession Fears Loom as U.S. GDP Falls for Second Quarter in a Row (7.28.22) WSJ

Democrats Massive Bill Will Affect Your Wallet (8.1.22)

Democrat Proposals Increase Taxes on Millions of Americans (7.30.22)

Uncharted Territory U.S. debt will nearly double GDP within 30 years, Feds say (7.28.22) WSJ

JPMorgan CEO Dimon Sums Up U.S. Economy In One Paragraph And It Sounds Bad  (7.14.22)

Inflation and a Probable Recession Are Eroding Americans’ Freedom (7.9.22)

June Inflation Hits 9.1 Percent, New 40-Year High (7.13.22)

Social Security is Still Insolvent, But You Can Do Something About It (7.18.22) SMC

Houses for Sale Are Staying on the Market Longer as Bidding Wars Fizzle, Demand Sinks (7.25.22)

Oil Billionaire Blasts Biden’s Gas Price Blame Game, Says Only One Thing Will Fix Inflation (6.27.22)

Biden Economic Adviser on High Gas Prices: “This Is About The Future Of The Liberal World Order” (6.30.22)

Ship of Fools 62% of Biden Officials Who Handle Economic Policy Have Zero Years Business Experience Per Report (7.13.22)

Banking & Central Banking

The Fed raised interest rates another .75% in an attempt to slow inflation, but Chairman Powell has repeatedly said rates will need to go much higher for these efforts to be successful.  Fed Vice-Chair Lael Brainerd is urging the US to move swiftly towards digitizing the US dollar.  Reuters wrote:

The development of an official digital version of the U.S. dollar could help safeguard its global dominance as other countries issue their own, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, weighing in with generally positive remarks on a hot-button topic at the central bank that has left policymakers divided.  “A U.S. CBDC (central bank digital currency) could… potentially help maintain the dollar’s international standing,” Powell said in introductory remarks to a research conference held by the central bank on the international roles of the dollar.  The Fed has just finished a four-month public consultation period soliciting opinions on the idea of a digital dollar.  Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard has emerged as a key supporter while Fed Governor Chris Waller has made the case against.  Ten countries have already launched central bank digital currencies and another 105 countries are exploring the option, according to the Atlantic Council, leading to fears the dollar could lose some of its dominance to China.”

Interest Rates Increased 0.75 Percentage Points (7.27.22) WSJ

Fed’s Powell a U.S. Digital Dollar Could Help Maintain International Primacy (6.17.22)

Currency & Digital Currency

Both the hard currency markets and the cryptocurrency markets had a very volatile Q-2 and that volatility has continued into Q-3.  The Euro fell to a 20-year low, then slipped below parity with the USD, a trend that will likely continue.  The one currency that’s rising against the USD as well as all the other global currencies, is the Russian Ruble, a trend that is also expected to continue (refer to my Q-1 update for the reasoning behind the Ruble’s success).  The cryptocurrency markets were very volatile and some of them crashed and burned, especially those platforms which relied upon algorithms rather than reality.  Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban’s reputation is now tarnished because his crypto brokerage venture failed.  Despite the volatility referenced above, the US as well as 105 other countries, are preparing to eliminate hard currency and create national digital currencies like China did last January.

From Brazil to Nigeria, Global Crypto Adoption is on the Rise Despite Market Uncertainty (8.3.22)

A 1,000 Year Old Idea is the Latest Cryptocurrency Trend (7.27.22) SMC  

Fed’s Powell a U.S. Digital Dollar Could Help Maintain International Primacy (6.17.22)

Euro Drops to 20-Year Low, Approaches Parity With Dollar (7.11.22)

Euro Slips Below Dollar as Europe’s Economic Fortunes Slump (7.14.22) WSJ

Bankrupt Crypto Entrepreneurs Nowhere To Be Found After Investors Come Knocking (7.12.22)

Dallas Mavericks fans fume at Mark Cuban over Voyager crypto bankruptcy (7.6.22)

World Markets & Economies

 The WSJ summed up Q-2 pretty well: “Global markets closed out their most bruising first half of a year in decades, leaving investors bracing for the prospect of further losses.  Accelerating inflation and rising interest rates fueled a months-long rout that left few markets unscathed. The S&P 500 fell 21% through Thursday, suffering its worst first half of a year since 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investment-grade bonds, as measured by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond exchange-traded fund, lost 11%—posting their worst start to a year in history. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 15%.Growth at U.S. manufacturing companies was its weakest in two years in July, but inflationary pressures showed signs of cooling as commodity prices eased, according to surveys of purchasing managers released Monday.

There are many reasons for the deteriorating US economy, and they almost all stem from the Biden Administration’s agenda-driven policies including purposeful attacks against US manufacturers, coal and oil producers, closures of pipelines, foreign policy and trade blunders, and misguided use of sanctions, which has backfired against the US and most of the world.  America is not the only country where agenda-driven policies are destroying the economy, international trade, and leaving citizens to suffer the consequences and pay the bill.  Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the European Union, the Netherlands, and UK all seem to be following the same script, which is discussed and formed at such gatherings as the World Economic Forum in Davos.  Even BlackRock suffered huge losses as reported by the WSJ and Epoch Times, “BlackRock, the world’s largest investment management firm with about $8.49 trillion in assets, recorded a $1.7 trillion loss in the first half of 2022, according to the company.  This was the biggest sum of money ever lost by a single company in a 6-month span, according to Marc Rubenstein, a Bloomberg analyst.  In the company’s second-quarter earnings report, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink attributed the immense decline to the collapse in the financial markets, blaming an environment of rampant price inflation, rising interest rates, and market carnage.”

Some bright spots in the US are many of the Red states whose economies are not heading south like many Blue states.  The Epoch Times reported, “Amidst predictions of a political “red wave” in the upcoming mid-term elections, an economic wave has been building for years with no end in sight as companies flood out of blue states and into red states. And as a result of its political divisions, America appears to now be dividing itself into prosperous, high-growth states and states that are suffering a chronic decline. But Democrat-run states believe their abortion policies could be a key factor in attracting companies back.  Caterpillar and Citadel, which in June announced their exit out of Illinois, are only the latest firms to leave high-tax, high-regulation states. Tesla, Hewlett Packard, Oracle, and Remington are also among the hundreds of companies flocking out of California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey to business-friendly places like Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Tennessee. Relocating companies have spanned industries including tech, finance, media, heavy manufacturing, autos, and firearms.

More Companies Join the ‘Great Migration’ to Red States (7.2.22)

Stock Markets Post Worst First Half of a Year in Over Five Decades (7.11.22) WSJ

U.S. Factory Growth Slowed in July on Decline in Orders (8.1.22) WSJ

Big Cities Can’t Get Workers Back to the Office (7.27.22) WSJ

BlackRock, World’s Largest Asset Manager, Lost $1.7 Trillion in Clients’ Money This Year (7.22.22)

BlackRock Profit Falls 22% (7.15.22)

Australia Spent $2 Billion on Covid Camps That Will Likely Never Be Used (7.18.22)

Manufacturers Brace for Nord Stream Repairs, Fearing Pipeline Won’t Reopen (7.9.22)

China Set to Post the Slowest Growth in Two Years on Zero-Covid Policy (7.14.22) WSJ

Green Energy’s Dirty Secret Its Hunger for African Resources (6.30.22)

Political Unrest

The Biden Administration’s failed handling of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, combined with Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, have created the greatest chance for a WWIII, since WWII.  The RT News reported, “The Ukrainian leader said that helping his country should be more important for Americans than domestic concerns. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has told British broadcaster Piers Morgan that inflation and coronavirus are “nothing” compared to Ukraine’s struggle, and Americans should support aid for Kiev “until we win.””  Zelensky has already received over $50 Billion in American tax dollars along with weapons and other aid, which is far more than a country in which the US has no strategic interest should ever have received, especially in such a controversial and historically complex conflict. 

The Biden Administration has been forced to finish parts of the border wall Trump had built, as illegal immigrants continue to pour into the US at record levels.  The administration is also losing ground in their battle to perpetuate Covid hysteria and restrictions, but with mid-term elections only 3 months away and a lack of facts and science to support their position, Monkeypox is now being declared the new world health emergency, New York, Los Angeles and Illinois have also proclaimed Monkeypox health emergencies.

The Epoch Times wrote: “The WHO now views the outbreak as a significant enough threat to global health that a coordinated international response is needed to prevent the virus from spreading further and potentially escalating into a pandemic,” Vallely said. Monkeypox is a disease primarily transmitted through the sexual activity of gay and bisexual men.  “I have decided that the global monkeypox outbreak represents a public health emergency of international concern,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a July 23 statement.  Beware of this politically driven global organization that is funded by the global elite,” warned the article.

EU nations like Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands have also made some very poor choices in alignment with the aforementioned script these nations all seem to be following, which is causing double-digit inflation, as well as natural gas, oil, and food shortages.  Many of Europe’s leaders, including Boris Johnson (UK) and Mario Draghi (Italy), have been forced to resign, and long-time Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, is stepping down as well.  The Blaze reported:

 “Some of Germany’s biggest cities are preparing for an energy crunch this winter by shutting off warm water, limiting heat, and switching off lighting.  The German city of Hanover is attempting to reduce its energy consumption by 15%.  Between Oct. 1 and March 31, Hanover’s municipal buildings will not be allowed to be heated to a temperature over 68F. The city has banned the use of mobile air conditioning units and fan heaters.  The citizens of Hanover will be forced to take cold showers at city-run facilities. The German city will cut off hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, and gyms.”   

China’s economy has many issues, their largest bank is insolvent, they have overspent and printed too much money and are selling US treasuries, not only to hurt the US, but also to keep themselves afloat.  The WSJ reported that China posted its slowest growth rate in two years, which means it’s probably much worse.  Couple that with internal problems including Chinese leaders becoming disenchanted with and challenging Xi, and China appears to have some volatile times ahead.

UN, World Economic Forum Behind Global War on Farmers (7.27.22)

World Economic Forum Gas Prices Must Go Even Higher to Save Democracy (7.11.22)

5 War Possibilities for China, Taiwan, & U.S. Involvement (8.2.22)

They Are Right on Our Predicted Schedule Retired US Generals Issue Warning About New Pandemic Declaration (7.28.22)

SF, NY Declare Health Emergencies Over Monkeypox Outbreak (7.29.22)

Zelensky Tells Americans to Make Sacrifices for Ukraine (7.27.22)

Germany’s Biggest Cities Prepare For Looming Energy Crisis By Shutting Off Warm Water, Limiting Heat, And Switching Off Lighting (7.30.22)

Wheat Prices Surge Indicate Worse Food Crisis Ahead (7.25.22)

Netherlands Partnered with WEF to Subvert Global Food Ahead of Farm Bans; Bill Gates Involved (7.11.22)

On the Ground With the Farmers Blockade; True Reason Why Elites Plan to Confiscate Land | Facts Matter (7.11.22)

Dutch Farmers and the Globalist Agenda (7.12.22)

Dutch PM Slams ‘Life-Threatening’ Farmer Protests (7.28.22)

Alex Newman Explains UN Agenda 2030 Behind Farming Restrictions (7.20.22)

China holdings of U.S. debt fall below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010 (7.18.22)

China Set to Post the Slowest Growth in Two Years on Zero-Covid Policy (7.14.22) WSJ

Argentina’s Government Collapsing, People Refuse to Work Amid Major Subsidy Cuts (7.27.22)

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi Says He Will Resign (7.14.22) WSJ

Boris Johnson Announces Resignation as UK Prime Minister (7.7.22)

The Planned Gas Collapse; Panama Shutdown Signals Beginning of International Unrest (7.19.22)

Time Is Not on Kyiv’s Side Training, Weapons, and Attrition in Ukraine (6.28.22)

Russia’s Jan-April Current Account Surplus More Than Triples to $96 Billion (5.16.22) Reuters

Here’s How Team Biden is Fueling Food Inflation (5.10.22) NYP

India Bans Wheat Exports as Food Security Comes Under Threat (5.13.22) Bloomberg