Monthly Archives: April 2020

Q-1 2020 The Coronavirus Quarter

This will be a somewhat different update because of the extraordinary circumstances of the last seven weeks. I think it’s important to examine more fully what may have actually happened, the motivations and agendas being pushed, and their devastating effects on world economies and global markets.

The first quarter of 2020 has changed everything; things will never be the same as they were before these events transpired. Good or bad the world has changed and the consequences of the worldwide quarantine and decisions made to counteract the coronavirus are still unfolding. Fear, lack of forethought and inaccurate statistics caused people, governments, and businesses to overreact and make short-sighted decisions with long-term consequences. The WSJ wrote:

“The U.S. economy has been cratered less by the coronavirus than by the response to it—driven by the undemocratic idea that “science” should rule, even when much of the science and the data behind it remain in dispute.  We’re told in this plague year that politicians have no role—in essence, that the people have no real rights against consensus science, which can demand that we forfeit our liberties and suspend the Constitution. Political leaders, elected to exercise judgment on our behalf, must defer to doctors, because the viral threat is addressable only through medical expertise.”

Many small businesses have closed their doors, never to re-open, and the massive job loss will ultimately cause many people to lose their cars, homes, retirement and go bankrupt.  This will cause a dramatic rise in domestic disputes, mental/emotional health issues, drug and alcohol abuse, homelessness, crime and the need for public assistance, as well as many other social problems. Suicide is already a greater mortal threat than the coronavirus in most areas, and all of the aforementioned factors will contribute to increased depression and loss of life as well. Every week the current restrictions remain in force, the worse these issues will become. As more accurate statistics are considered, many experts fear the risk accompanying the quarantine is becoming greater than the protection it may be providing, and states are meeting together to discuss re-opening businesses and easing quarantine requirements. Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson does an excellent twelve-minute segment summarizing these concerns (see below).

States Move to Coordinate on Reopening Plans (4.13.20) WSJ

We Need Politicians in a Pandemic (4.12.20) WSJ

Tucker How Long Will the Lockdowns Last (4.6.20) Fox News

Economic Data Spur Debate Over Lifting Virus Restrictions (4.9.20) WSJ

Perspectives on the Pandemic (3.26.20) Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University Episode 1

Projection of 100K-240K Coronavirus Deaths Was Likely an Overestimate (4.8.20)

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say (3.24.20) WSJ

Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns (3.25 20) The Federalist


When all of the fear and paranoia is boiled away and accurate statistics are considered, we’re left with a new virus much like the flu, which a very small portion of the population are vulnerable to. Some interim precautions were understandable, and individuals should still take measures to protect themselves, but the overall reaction and projected mortality rates were extremely exaggerated. President Trump even withdrew US funding from the WHO because of their irresponsible acceptance of China’s claims on the coronavirus, inaccurate statistics and projections and failure to share information about the pandemic as it spread.

As with any crisis, various individuals, organizations and governments will attempt to use the crisis to further their agendas. Some governors and legislatures are using this crisis to circumvent people’s constitutional rights preventing or curtailing the purchase of firearms and ammunition, and preventing peaceful assembly. George Soros, Henry Kissinger, the Pope, the UN and others are calling for more global control that supersedes national sovereignty in order to require mandatory vaccinations. Bill Gates is pushing legislation to require mandatory vaccination of all American citizens and the insertion of an RFID chip, purportedly to monitor our health and help control future outbreaks. He is building seven factories to manufacture seven potential vaccines.

A number of reputable sources have drawn a direct correlation between 5G and the coronavirus and some have claimed the virus narrative was created as a cover-up for the negative effects of 5G. I don’t believe 5G causes the coronavirus, but I do believe it can negatively impact health, causing people to be more vulnerable to the virus. Some municipalities, like San Francisco, have passed ordinances in an attempt to prevent 5G towers from being built due to health concerns about the negative effects of 5G radiation, especially on people with compromised immune systems. I believe the virus came out of the bio-research lab in Wuhan China, and China’s delayed response caused massive deaths of its own people in and around Wuhan. I also find it interesting, however, that there is little to no information about what happened in the rest of China, only Wuhan, almost as if the outbreak was confined to that area and did not affect the rest of China. We will likely never know for sure what really happened and why.

Trump Halts Payment to WHO, Blames Them for Delayed Response (4.14.20) Fox Video

AG Barr Very Concerned About Personal Liberty After Gates Proposes Digital Vaccine Certificates (4.9.20)

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order (4.3.20) WSJ Henry Kissinger

The Treasury Has Absorbed the Fed, NSARA & More (4.4.20)

Who Failed Trump Halts Payment to WHO, Blames Them for Delayed Response (4.14.20) Fox Video

How a Police State is Born (4.1.20) )

Big Government Using Coronavirus Pandemic To Secure More Control (3.27.20) The Blaze

The National Plan to Vaccinate Every American (3.21.20)

San Francisco is Resisting 5G, Calling it Ugly & Dangerous (6.1.19) Fox News


Having addressed those things, let’s examine the effects of the coronavirus on global markets, national economies and personal finances. The Dow reached its all-time highest point 29,551 on Feb. 12, 2020. It closed Monday, March 23 at 18,559, down over 11,000, then rose to 23,719 to finish the week on April 10, 2020. Regardless of the actual or perceived threat posed by the Coronavirus, investors are reacting and market analysts have no grid system for what’s happening and no clue what will happen next. As soon as the epidemic peaks and cases begin to decline, states will begin to open to ease quarantine restrictions and reopen the economy.  It will take time to assess the damage; many businesses will not re-open and many more may not be able to survive in the aftermath, even with all the money which has been made available to them through low-interest loans and deferments. Gold has moved up in the last four weeks, but silver is lagging. The US stock future indexes are rising as states talk of re-opening.

Gold’s Powerful Rally Brings $1,800 Into View as Spreads Yawn (4.14.20) Bloomberg

U.S. Stock Index Futures Rise as Countries Look at Reopening (4.13.20) Bloomberg

Dow Escapes Bear Market With a 6% Rally (3.26.20) WSJ

Dow Climbs in Best Day Since 1933 on Stimulus Hopes (3.24.20) WSJ

Dow Plunges 10% With Stimulus Details Uncertain (3.18.20) Bloomberg

FDIC Asks Americans to Keep Their Money in the Banks (3.25.20)

U.S. Will Suspend All Travel From Europe for Next 30 Days (3.11.20) WSJ

Stock Markets Down More Than 7% After Trading Halt Lifts (3.9.20) WSJ

Trump Administration to Delay April 15 Tax Deadline for Most Individuals (3.12.20) WSJ m/articles/u-s-treasury-likely-to-push-back-april-15-tax-filing-deadline-sources-11583897351


Central Banks & Banks

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates a half percent, and then lowered them again March 15 to almost 0; lower than the 2008 Financial Crisis. Even more worrisome, they are making the largest infusion of cash into the overnight repo market in history. They also are going to be buying $500 billion Treasury Securities and $200 billion Mortgage Back Securities. This dramatic action clearly shows that the financial fallout is much greater than people think, as these actions are unprecedented.

The Federal Reserve and many of the other central banks of the world have lowered interest rates and printed massive amounts of money, so there is not much more they can do from this point forward. The banking system is in trouble to the degree that the FDIC put out a video asking people not to take their money out of their banks. The lowest, longest-running rates of unemployment have also come to a halt, with unemployment rates skyrocketing. Bloomberg wrote, “The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet topped $5 trillion for the first time amid the U.S. central bank’s aggressive efforts to cushion debt markets against the coronavirus outbreak through large-scale bond-buying programs.

The Independent UK News reported, “The Bank of England has agreed to expand the overdraft facility it offers the government, amid concerns about potential strains in the state debt market brought on by the Covid-19 emergency. The Bank and the Treasury announced on Thursday morning that its long-standing Ways and Means (W&M) facility will be extended to enable the government to borrow as much as it needs to meet its commitments.”

Bank of England Extends Government’s Emergency Overdraft Account Amid Coronavirus Crisis (4.13.20)

Fed Unveils New Programs to Support $2.3 Trillion in Lending (4.9.20) WSJ

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion for First Time (3.26.20) Bloomberg

FDIC Asks Americans to Keep Their Money in the Banks (3.25.20)

Federal Reserve Issues $500 billion to Overnight Lending Program (3.14.20) The Blaze

FDIC Asks Americans to Keep Their Money in the Banks (3.25.20)

Negative Interest Rates in the US are Virtually Guaranteed Now (3.4.20) SMC

Fed Cuts Rates to Near Zero and Will Relaunch Bond-Buying Program (3.15.20) WSJ

Fed Unveils Dramatic Measures to Ease Market Strain on Virus (3.12.20) Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Issues $500 Billion to Overnight Lending Program (3.14.20)


Debt Recession

The US passed a $2 trillion stimulus plan and another trillion-dollar plan is already in the works.  Some nations can afford to deal with the crisis, but many cannot. Italy‘s debt burden even before this crisis was more than 120% of GDP and their banks were in trouble before the crisis. Simon Black wrote, “Every scenario is on the table, and absolutely anything can happen, but it seems pretty clear that the most heavily indebted countries are in big trouble… and we may be looking at a major sovereign debt crisis over the next few months.”  Currently, the expectation of the IMF and most nations is that we are potentially headed for the most difficult recession the world has ever seen.

World Economy Is Almost Certainly in Recession (4.14.20) WSJ

Mapping the COVID-19 Recession (4.7.20)

Coronavirus Crisis Legacy Mountains of Debt (4.9.20) WSJ

There’s a Major Sovereign Debt Crisis Looming (4.4.20) SMC

What’s in the $2T Stimulus Bill (3.28.20) Glen Beck

The Small Business Administration is now bigger than Walmart (3.30) SMC

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion for First Time (3.26.20) WSJ

White House, Lawmakers Strike Stimulus-Bill Deal (3.24.20) WSJ

Bond Downgrades Begin Amid Coronavirus Slowdown (3.24.20) WSJ


World Economies

The US, which just two months ago had some of the best unemployment numbers ever, is now experiencing some of the highest unemployment numbers ever. Many companies large and small have applied for assistance under the 2 trillion dollar stimulus package passed by Congress. The WSJ wrote, “As job losses ricochet across the U.S., Europe is conducting an unprecedented experiment in navigating the economic fallout from the new coronavirus: Persuade companies to forgo layoffs by subsidizing private-sector wages on a massive scale.  More than one million companies across the continent have signed up for subsidy programs that essentially transform their payrolls into a system for delivering billions of euros in stimulus funds directly to households.”

Countries around the world are looking to their governments for assistance, and many countries are looking to the IMF to help provide that assistance. The WSJ reposted, “Scores of countries are asking for bailouts and loans from financial institutions with $1.2 trillion to lend.  The health of the global economy comes down to a race between money flooding out of emerging markets amid the coronavirus pandemic and the efforts of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to pump money back in. The two Washington-based finance institutions find themselves facing the greatest challenge since they were established as the heart of the international monetary system at the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference.”

IMF & World Bank Face Deluge of Aid Requests From Developing World (4.9.20) WSJ

Europe Unleashes Massive Subsidies to Stem Job Losses (4.9.20) WSJ

U.S. Jobless Claims Soar for Third Straight Week (4.9.20) WSJ

US Weekly Jobless Claims Seen At Record High – Again (4.2.20) Fox News

Record Rise in Unemployment Claims Halts History Run of Job Growth (3.26.20) WSJ

New Zealand Stocks Plummet, Set to Enter Bear Market (3.12.20) Bloomberg

Oil has fallen radically, but this not because of the Coronavirus, it’s because the Saudis increased their output, which caused other countries to increase their output, causing oil prices to freefall.  Bloomberg wrote, “Saudi Arabia plans to boost oil output next month to well above 10 million barrels a day, as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia.  The world’s largest oil exporter engaged in an all-out price war on Saturday by slashing pricing for its crude by the most in more than 30 years. State energy giant Saudi Aramco is offering unprecedented discounts in Asia, Europe and the U.S. to entice refiners to use Saudi crude.”

Saudis Plan Big Oil Output Hike, Beginning All-Out Price War (3.7.20) Bloomberg

U.S. Oil Majors Are Snubbing Climate-Conscious Rivals in Europe (3.5.20) Bloomberg

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Fannie and Freddie (3.2.20) Bloomberg

European Stocks Have Worst Day in Decades (3.12.20) WSJ


Political Uncertainty

Political instability is everywhere. Some elections are still being held, but many are being postponed because no one can go out and vote. We also have the same problems we’ve been dealing with before the crisis still lurking in the background. The Huawei controversy is still raging and China has become less trustworthy due to this issue as well as a number of other allegations, and their mishandling of the virus. The only country moving closer to them is the Philippians. The WSJ reported in February, “U.S. officials say Huawei Technologies Co. can covertly access mobile-phone networks around the world through “back doors” designed for use by law enforcement, as Washington tries to persuade allies to exclude the Chinese company from their networks.  Intelligence shows Huawei has had this secret capability for more than a decade.  U.S. officials say Huawei has built equipment that secretly preserves the manufacturer’s ability to access networks through these interfaces without the carriers’ knowledge.”

One thing for sure is that political instability and uncertainty will be increasing not decreasing in the days ahead.

China Blasts Trump’s Move to Pull WHO Funding, Pledges Support (4.14.20) Bloomberg

Legally Embattled Netanyahu Claims Victory After Turbulent Year (3.2.20)

Poland Sets Presidential Election Date as Clash With EU Deepens (2.5.20) Bloomberg

U.S. Officials Say Huawei Can Covertly Access Telecom Networks (2.11.20) WSJ

Philippines to End Military Pact With U.S. (2.11.20) WSJ

Trump & Fighting a War Invisible Enemy Isn’t Just Coronavirus But Socialism, Slavery Too (4.6.20) The Blaze

Biological Weapons the Focus of China’s Military Research in the Last 20 Years (March 2020)

March 2nd Coronavirus Update We’re all Gonna Get it, But We’ll be Fine (3.2.20)


CDC US Coronavirus Outbreak is a Matter of When Not If (2.26.20) The Blaze


This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year, According to the CDC (2.11.20)